Is this the beginning of the end of Reform and is Nigel Farage the Messiah or just a very naughty boy?

The row that is ripping Reform apart was inevitable. Whatever you may think of his views Nigel Farage is a force of political nature. He is charismatic, authentic and utterly ruthless. He can communicate directly with the electorate which very few politicians are capable of. Think Boris Johnson with beliefs. Lastly, he changed the political weather over Brexit and won five Parliamentary seats and four million votes at the last election. He is being punted as a future prime minister.

 

But it was the personal appeal of Farage that led to these victories, not UKIP nor Reform. And it his reputation as an outsider that is his USP. Different. Not like the squabbling elites who only obsess about their ascent up the greasy pole and ignore the real fears of the masses who have been patronised and ignored for generations. So if Farage has an incapacitating illness or is run over by a number 11 bus, probably driven by Isabel Oakshott, Reform  is dead in the water. Richard Tice is a pleasant enough fellow but has a ticking time bomb residing in Dubai. Lee Anderson is more capable and cleverer than you think and James McMurdock has more baggage than a carrousel at Southend airport. And then we come to Rupert Lowe. Oh, dear. None of them have a hope in hell of leading their party to any sort of electoral significance.

 

The problem Reform has is that they want to be precisely what the electorate don’t want them to be, an organised party. Of course, if you want to win elections you have to be organised, candidates being vetted with diligence and some sort of democratic structure. They can’t just rely on just being a spittoon for every pissed off voter. That’s the only function of the LibDems. And they would be unwise to be the knee jerk to every Daily Mail headline. That’s the function of Robert Jenrick who would make Pavlov’s dogs whimper with embarrassment.

 

So the deluded five think that now they are MPs, they are all equal. Well, that’s a fatal mistake. Lowe rather foolishly thought that as the weirdly bonkers Musk attacked Farage as a wimp for not backing hero of the people  street thug Tommy Robinson who was in contempt of court for nearly derailing a paedophile trial, believed he was the anointed one. Well, that would have gone down well with Trump who will soon be throwing Musk out with the trash when he gets bored with an ego bigger than his own. Lowe will  learnthat Farage is a past master of destroying those who are foolish enough to publicly challenge him. It will not end well for Lowe unless he kneels at his feet with a grovelling apology.

 

But Farage has made some serious errors of judgment. Sidelining his popular comms man Gwaine Towler was one of them which was the whim of another serious mistake, millionaire businessman Zia Yusif, who is party chairman and has has as much understanding of politics as Rachel Reeves has of economics. He thought that it was a good idea to sideline award winning SKY from press briefings as their ratings are poor. That will come back to bite him. And then there is the sacking of former deputy leader Ben Habid. In politics it’s so much easier to make enemies than friends.

 

Yusif wants to make Reform a sleek well oiled political machine and has cancelled much of the old guard which made Reform a success. This will not end well either. Finally, Farage taking the Trump and Kremlin line on Ukraine will be as welcome with voters as a rat sandwich.

 

The local elections should have been an interesting litmus test, but as twelve authorities will not be taking part the Tories will have less of a drubbing. But what of the Runcorn and Helsby by election? This is an interesting one. Although it was a new seat at the last election the figures extrapolated from the old one are of note. Reform were in second place with 7,662, up 13.3%. The Tories were down 20.8% with 6,756. The Lib Dems down 1.6%. Then consider that this is an overwhelmingly white working class constituency. Gaza doesn’t get a look in. Take into account that depriving pensioners winter fuel payments the disastrous anti jobs budget, its anyone’s guess who will take the Labour vote. Labour might just win.

 

I really do hope that the Tories realise that unity (not Mitford) is the only way to bring back some semblance credibility and this continual vacuous chatter about an ‘accommodation’ with Reform is a dangerous fantasy. And as for Farage? Is he the Messiah or just a very naughty boy? I think that we all know the answer to that.