The year before Margaret Thatcher was given a mortal blow by Sir Geoffrey Howe’s broken cricket bat, David Mellor sidled up to me in the lobby muttering, ‘ it’s like the OK coral. We are shooting at everything that moves’.
I imagine that you could have a similar a conversation with most of Starmer’s cabinet. Pensioners, family businesses and everyone who strives to improve their lives are angry and bewildered. Inflation is on the rise, the economy is in Truss doom loop and economic confidence is falling faster than a flasher’s Y fronts. And it’s not going to get any better.
What must be so confusing for new Labour MPs is how quickly the political weather changes. A few months ago they were lauded on the door steps. Now they are reviled. The ‘lines to take’ kindly proffered why the whips are met by derision by political commentators. They will be told repeatedly to keep calm and carry on. But the latest opinion polls are gloomy reading.
There has been talk for months that there is a plan to oust Starmer with Wes Streeting. Don’t hold your breath. It’s very, very difficult to oust a Labour leader. I am not saying that it won’t happen way down the track, but Angela Rayner has a better chance of growing a penis.
However, if I was Rachel Reeves I would keep a constant eye on my rear mirror and a revolver under my pillow. Prime Ministers have a troubling habit of chucking Chancellors under a bus when needs must. It’s always risky because prime ministers try to be in lockstep with them. They have to be. Thatcher never survived the resignation of Nigel Lawson over policy differences regarding the ERM, so it’s best to push them before they jump. And would Reeves have a following and be a threat on the backbenches? Good heavens no. If you really want to sink the leadership ambitions of Streeting make him Chancellor. It’s a risk because he might be quite good at it with a few low cost U turns on pensioners and NIC rises. It’s early days, but there will be a time when Pat McFadden, who unlike McSweeney, understands the necessity of brutality and blood sacrifice in government will give her the Glasgow kiss. But I imagine that it will be steady before she goes after the local elections.
The appointment of Mandelson to Washington is either an act of genius or of self destruction. The clever stuff is that he is a big beast with what the Foreign Office calls reach. He would be wise to try manipulate (you wait, he will) Farage to give him access to Trump and Musk. This is Farage’s first step on the world stage as a fixer as opposed to an irritant and will be intoxicating. Nigel should sup with him with a very long spoon as Mandelson knows how to charm and destroy almost simultaneously. He will use him to try and destroy the Tories and then try and throw him to the wolves. Mandelson has cleverly cultivated his image as the Prince of Darkness, in which he relishes. He will be held in fear and awe by those who don’t know him and despised by those who do. To his credit he was a very effective minister and Trade Commissioner. Farage would be wise to keep one thing in the forefront of his mind namely Mandelson wants more from him than he does from Mandelson. And remember that for all his dark arts reputation he is still just an old fashioned fixer with a weakness for fabulously wealthy people. It will take a team of sniffer dogs to remove his head from Musk’s backside. The cynics are already betting on when he will self destruct.
Something that intrigues me is the silence on the destruction of the criminal justice system by shadow justice secretary, Robert Jenrick. Courts are lying idle after the number of sitting days have been cut. It won’t be long before the back log in crown court cases reaches eighty thousand. It takes years for rape cases come to court, so long that many women have just given up and withdraw from proceedings. There are just over two thousand criminal barristers practising. They can’t take the stress, poor pay and conditions. Last year thirteen hundred trials had to be adjourned because there weren’t enough barristers to prosecute or defend them. But rather than properly fund the system the government has commissioned Sir Brian Leveson (remember him journalists?) to look into ways of rationing the jury system, the only part of the organs of the state that the public trusts and the cornerstone of our democracy. We should be hearing more about this from Jenrick. Or is he still on manoeuvres?
First they came for the pensioners……..