23 May 2014 at 15:46
Liam Fox is quite right in saying that Farage has entered the Westminster chicken house. The trouble is that with all the predictability of a flasher’s mac the chickens that have been rendered headless are Tory and Labour backbenchers. For a change the corporal Jones syndrome is infecting labour more than anyone else. The Tories are edgy but nowhere near self destruct. Labour is in meltdown.
The reasons are fairly simple. The Euro/council elections are in a parallel universe to the Westminster election. The tracking polls for the former have always put Labour and the Kippers head to head. So the stuffing of the main parties has been predictable for a very long time. It had been written off by the press. Oh, and a note to Mr Dacre, remember Nigel’s enlightened comments about locking up the press. We knew the Faragistas would do well simply because most people don’t think the Euro/council elections are worth a bucketful of warm spit. It may be unfair but it is true. The Westminster elections are a whole new ball game. They really affect peoples lives. What must be terrifying for Labour is that their six point lead has gradually evaporated. Not a freak poll but the YOUGOV tracker trend. Worse, Cameron has a serious double point lead on who makes the best Prime Minister and the running of the economy. Poor old Miliband is seen as weird and whatever passes for an economic policy is shot to pieces. Frustratingly, the cost of living line withers on the vine as the growth and job market leads the world. So by May 2015 Labour will enter the election naked and horribly exposed. This election is for the Tories to lose.
But what has seriously discombobulated the command structure of Labour is the shock horror of the UKIP inroad into their northern heartland. Don’t they read the polls? Don’t they realise that people are horrified at their immigration policies? Don’t they realise that the struggling hardworking resent their nudge, nudge wink wink attitude to the work shy?
So here’s the dilemma for Ed. Do I do a Blair and steal the clothes of the centre right? It’s a no brainer. It is not in his DNA let alone his thought process. And the Byzantine structures of their constitution will not allow them to offer a blood sacrifice in time for electoral prize giving. No wonder his backbenchers are going ape. And it will get worse.
But the real election is by no means a shoe in for the Tories. Boundaries are still skewed against them. And this weekend will be a real test of nerve for backbenchers. They will go back to their panic ridden constituency associations and be harangued by councillors who have lost their incomes. Their natural instinct is to enter a pact with UKIP purely for self preservation. Cameron is right to order Shapps to say bollocks. The press is gradually turning against the Faragistas and their sinister snigger in the woodpile politics.
So there is a dilemma for Cameron haters.’ How do we get the bastard out and not lose our seats? ’. The poor dears have a bit of a problem.
But this weekend could be uncomfortable.